Active Atlantic hurricane season likely ahead

Being an avid weather watcher (having had my interest in meteorology first sparked during the landfall of Tropical Storm Isidore in southeast Louisiana on September 26, 2002), I naturally take extreme interest in the annual Atlantic hurricane season (I watch other basins as well, though not to the extent I do the Atlantic, primarily due to lack of knowledge of where to obtain computer models for those basins). For those of us who live along the Gulf Coast (even inland, as in my case), this is a period of intense apprehension. However, in my case, I eagerly await the annual Atlantic hurricane season with glee -- I know that sounds inhumane, so please allow me to elaborate. I do not at all (read: zilch) enjoy seeing the inevitable death and destruction that tropical storms and hurricanes bring to our coastlines and points inland. On the contrary. What I enjoy is the extreme anticipation always inevitably accompanied by tracking tropical cyclones. I enjoy studying them, their mechanics, as well as their behavior.

I've been a registered user of wunderground (http://www.wunderground.com) for a little over three years now, and I lurked there prior to that. During my time there, I have gained a considerable amount of knowledge pertaining to meteorology, tropical meteorology in particular. For the layman, that means that I specialize in the forecasting of tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes). As a consequence of said knowledge, I also make an effort to forecast the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin in any given year.

After some research, I have come to a conclusion Atlantic hurricane activity during 2010. Below, I will present my seasonal forecast, and my reasoning for such:

16 named storms
8 hurricanes
4 major hurricanes

For comparison, the long-term average for a given year are 10/6/2, respectively. Obviously, this means that my own forecast is far above what is considered to be the long-term norm for Atlantic hurricane seasonal activity. Part of what helps me to create a forecast for Atlantic hurricane activity are what are called "analog years". This simply means that I compare the current year (in this case, 2010) to a previous year with similar oceanic and atmospheric conditions to the current. I have come up with two very good analog years this year: 1998 and 2005.

1998 was a very active season, producing 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. To jog the memory of those who might not remember the year, I will go into detail on some of the more notable events below:

The three major hurricanes of 1998 were: Bonnie (August), Georges (September), and Mitch (October). Bonnie came up the North Carolina coast as a high-end Category 2 hurricane, having just weakened prior to landfall from a low-end Category 3. Bonnie moved through quickly, however, so damage was minimal. Next came Georges, which ravaged at least six Caribbean countries. Amazingly, Georges retained hurricane status throughout its long trek through the Caribbean. Georges was, at its peak, a high-end Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph, just 1 mph shy of Category 5 status -- the highest on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. Georges then went on to devastate the Florida Keys as a high-end Category 2.

However, the circulation was too disrupted from the almost continuous passage overland while it was in the Caribbean; this lessened the impact to the United States mainland, because it prevented the hurricane from restrengthening significantly (in fact, Georges actually weakened somewhat prior to its Mississippi landfall). Georges threatened New Orleans, but turned away at the last minute, as many of the city's past hurricanes have done. Georges made a final landfall on September 28 near Biloxi, Mississippi, coming ashore as a 105 mph Category 2 hurricane. Georges was a prodigious rainmaker, moving painfully slow parallel to the coast after landfall.

Mitch was by far the deadliest hurricane of the 1998 season, and the second deadliest Atlantic hurricane of all time. Mitch attained Category 5 status in the western Caribbean during the middle of October, then gradually weakened as it moved slowly toward the coast of Central America. Days of torrential rainfall battered portions of Central America, in particular Honduras and Nicaragua, killing over 22,000. Mitch's impact didn't end there, though; after emerging from Central America, the cyclone accelerated northeastward toward the western Florida coast, making landfall near Tampa as a 65 mph tropical storm on November 1. Mitch quickly became extratropical after landfall, its legacy as a tropical system finally ending.

2005, on the other hand, was far worse than 1998, even as active as the latter was. Four major hurricanes struck the Gulf Coast during the season: Dennis (July), Katrina (August), Rita (September), and Wilma (October). Katrina became the costliest natural disaster in United States history, with damage estimated at least $80 billion (2005 USD). Katrina far exceeded the previous record held by 1992's Hurricane Andrew. Katrina was also the deadliest United States hurricane since the 1928 Lake Okeechobee Hurricane.

I would detail 2005 further, but most people here are probably already familiar enough with it, even the laymen. The point of giving out the important information of 1998 and 2005 was to illustrate that it pays to be very cautious and prepare during active hurricane seasons, as 2010 is likely to be. All of our ENSO models are forecasting the demise of El Niño by the summer, with the onset of neutral to possibly even La Niña conditions. This indicates the likelihood of a particularly active season, particularly if La Niña develops, since that historically means a greater number of storms.

However, it's not the number of storms that's important; rather, it's whether or not they make landfall. After all, none of us are affected by a fish spinner out in the Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Azores, right? So anyway, here are the current SST (sea surface temperature) comparisons between this year and 1998, as well as 2005, my two closest analog years:

1998:

April 28:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/1998/anomnight.4.28.1998.gif

2005:

April 30:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2005/anomnight.4.30.2005.gif

2010:

April 29:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2010/anomg.4.29.2010.gif

As you can see, both those years are terribly close, SST-wise, to 2010. Now, I know that that is rather unnerving, but SSTs are but one of many factors that go into determining seasonal hurricane activity. We have to factor in other things, such as wind shear, dry air, and, most important of all, steering currents. However, SSTs can also affect wind shear to a degree. Look again at those SST charts I listed above; notice in the eastern Pacific Ocean along the equator. This is known as the "Nino region", and is crucial in determining whether or not we are in experiencing El Niño, which suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity, or if we are experiencing neutral conditions, (in between El Niño and La Niña), or finally, if we are experiencing La Niña, which greatly increases hurricane activity.

Notice the tongue of anomalous (indicated by the color chart at the bottom; the orange, yellows, and reds represent above normal sea surface temperatures, while the blue and purple colors represent below normal sea surface temperatures) warm water extending westward for several hundred miles. While a weak El Niño is still present at this point, this anomalously warm water has been gradually cooling over the last several weeks, and it appears likely, based on a positive SOI, that El Niño will meet its demise soon, possibly even before June 1, the start of the Atlantic hurricane season.

This would, obviously, favor an active hurricane season. Notice that 2005 also had a rapidly dying El Niño, and by hurricane season, we were into neutral conditions, with weak La Niña conditions by fall. This likely contributed to the intense late-season (October-November) activity that we saw that year. So all in all, this season looks to be far more active than last year's largely tame season. Remember though, that numbers aren't important -- it's where the storms we do get make landfall (if they do), and this is not easy to predict. So just be prepared, but not panicked.

I would rather not speculate on long-term steering forecasts, since our ability to forecast long-term is poor at best.

Coming out of a slump

I write video game guides, or, if you want to phrase it another way, "FAQs" (Frequently Asked Questions), for GameFAQs.com (http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/recognition/49342.html). While I don't get paid for this, I do find it rather enjoyable, and incredibly worthwhile, for not only my own satisfaction, but also, more importantly, because I love helping people. It is my hope that those who read my guides will find the assistance they've been looking for, and if not, well at least I tried.

Anyhow, enough backstory, let's cut to the chase, shall we? I've completed just a little over a dozen FAQs, as well as some reviews. Indeed, I was churning out FAQs left and right back in the day, circa 2004-2006. It was all I did. My only completed FAQ in 2007 was Super Paper Mario for the Nintendo Wii. In July 2008, I purchased the Nintendo DS remake of Final Fantasy IV, and almost immediately took it upon myself to write a FAQ for it, having not written one in quite some time at that point (nearly a year).

I thought that my FAQing slump, which had been ongoing since at least the beginning of 2007 (again, save Super Paper Mario, I didn't write for anything else during that year, and this continued into 2008 until the purchase of Final Fantasy IV), was finally about to come to an end. I was wrong. Upon writing the walkthrough section all the way up until the final dungeon, Lunar Subterrane, the arrival of Hurricane Gustav necessitated a cessation in my writing of the guide. Being without electricity for five days following the storm had apparently caused me to lose a great deal of motivation to finish what I had started.

After the storm had passed and electricity was restored, I found that I had virtually no motivation to continue FAQing. Thus, after much contemplating, I decided to remove it from GameFAQs. Unfortunately, due to my enormous degree of laziness, I opted not to remove it from the other sites on which it was hosted (such as IGN and Neoseeker). Hence, I continued to be bombarded with emails pertaining to help with the game for several weeks after its GameFAQs removal.

So anyway, fast forward to April of 2010, and I've finally managed to rekindle the long-lost motivation that I knew was buried deep within me. I have decided to begin writing a FAQ for Xenosaga Episode I: Der Wille zur Macht, a ridiculously awesome JRPG for the Playstation 2 with an interestingly complex plot that spans multiple games (this is only the first game in the series). I am undecided if I will be writing for Xenosaga II and III, but keep checking my blog, because you never know. I just might!

Hopefully, this signifies the end to my enormously long FAQ hiatus.